Thursday, April 25, 2019

#NYAY - Why it is good Keynesian Economics.

Keynesian Economics - Basic Income Guarantee. #AbHogaNyay

If 100 families in a town who were used to having one meal a day, gets to eat three meals a day because of minimum income guarantee; the town will get additional white money, and the local economic income will increase multiple times.

It will stimulate the grocery shop, and all the primary businesses in the town; thereby having a direct impact on the GDP positively.

Secondly, India ranks very low in terms of social security Govt spending. India primarily spends for the rich. We have very poor primary education infra, when our higher education is quite capable. The reason is simply the target segment for higher education - the rich. It was high time for India to have a policy level shift towards spending for the poor. To my mind, basic income guarantee like MGNREGA will be revolutionary for the bottom 20%.

The arguments against it will primarily be the same points that were there for MGNREGA in 2005. 1) Free money will make people lazy. 2) Where will the money come from? These questions are as old as arguments made against making our country a socialist democracy. Today, we are a socialist democracy as per our preamble.

Lastly, nobody wants to be poor. If given an opportunity, every human being will try to become rich. Basic minimum income is the least level of opportunity that any socialist Govt must provide to its poorest of the poor. It will ensure food, clothing and shelter.

Implementation will be tough. Rahul and the Congress must get the best minds across party, and domains to think through its stepwise implementation.

In response to a mob violence in Assam..

বিশ্বনাথ চাৰিআলি,
তই দুখ দিলি।
কিয় নিৰৱে চাই থাকিলি ৰই।

দুজনক নিদিলি কিয় সাহস,
মানৱতাক খঙৰ পৰা কৰিবলৈ উদ্ধাৰ।

অসমীয়া মই, লাজত হলো সেউজীয়া।
মানুহো মই, সাহেৰে খঙৰ ভিৰক বিৰোধ কৰি যাম।

আলি ককাই, মাফ কৰি দিয়া ডেকা তেজক,
সময়ে বুজাব, ডেকা তেজ বুঢ়া হ'ব।
আল্লা খোদা ভগৱানে তোমাক শান্তি দিব।

হে অসমীয়া, বুজিবা আন্তৰিকতাৰে,
আবেগেৰে নলবা হেংদাং,
অসম গৌৰৱ গদাধৰসিংহৰো আছিল প্ৰিয় খাদ্য
এটি দমৰা।

Jet Airways is a strategic failure of Indian Governance

Jet Airways is a victim of poor policy and an insensitive governance.

Last week 22000 educated citizens have lost their jobs. They are pleading with the Government for support and I hope they get it.

Why is the pioneer airline brand of India with years of experience facing BANKRUPTCY? Jet had over 15% market share and still it failed.

Indigo, the largest airline brand had posted a 97% fall in profits in the 1st quarter of FY18-19. In the 2nd quarter, it made a loss of Rs. 652 crores for the first time after it became a listed company in 2015.

Even Spicejet made a loss of Rs. 389.40 crores in the same quarter when it had made a profit of Rs 105.30 crores in the same quarter, previous year.

Go Air is on sale after 13 years of operations! Vistara is also losing money every quarter to the tune of over 400 crores.

Interestingly, top line revenues are growing for all these airlines. Total income is increasing but expenses are increasing without control.

Aviation Turbine Fuel costs comprise 35-40% of the operating costs and fuel prices are increasing uncontrollably. The Govt has reduced excise duty by 300 basis points which is grossly inadequate.

The engine rentals and maintenance costs are paid in dollars and they comprise 30-35% of the expense. Dollar had touched all time high of over 73 plus - a rise of 13%. This affects profitability very critically. Also, airport charges for airline is very high.

Sadly, both these costs are beyond the control of the airline brands. When a brand can't control 2/3rd of its expenses in any meaning way, the risk of business is just too high.

Lastly, with the Indian economy in doldrums, the competition for excess supply, lower personal income, need to maintain the passenger load factor, and aggregators selling tickets bring down the ticket prices. When the strategic need is to increase ticket prices, the prices actually fall. There is limited ability to pass on costs increase by increasing ticket prices.

This typical scenario makes the airline industry in India dependent on the present day Government, its policies, its subsidies and its macro economic policies.

Airlines like public Railways provide critical stimulus to the economy and its growth prospects. It makes the movement of costly intellectual labour faster. Movement of Labour, like Capital directly affects the economy. It makes skills accessible across the country in great speed. It has the potential to remove poverty, cause development, improve implementation in a big country like India.

However, the Government shows a tendency to portray airline as a luxury travel mode. The aviation policy, tax rules, charge slabs therefore are not the talk of the town for policy makers and Government.

How can we make airlines less dependent on foreign exchange fluctuations? Can the Government subsidize economy travel for overall progress? Can the Government create infrastructure to maintain aircraft engines and other such services to the airline industry? How do we tackle the ATF price issue strategically? Can the Government regulate the price for the sake of faster movement of Labour?

It is no joke that all the airlines are making losses, and we hardly know who is the aviation minister. The current minister is Mr. Suresh Prabhu, who is actually the industry minister with additional charges in the aviation ministry. He took charge when TDP had quit NDA. One Mr Ashok Gajapathi Raju was the minister from 2014 to 2018. Did anyone know?

I firmly believe that aviation needs Government focus as a key strategic objective. We need to wake up to that fact and stop considering flying to be an activity of the rich.. It's not.

Sunday, July 15, 2018

In Diversity Flourish Unity. In Unity Flourish War.

ঐক্যতা ভিন্নতাৰ প্ৰতিক। Only in diversity, there is unity.

কথাষাৰ কিবা অকৰা টাইপ। Strange to read and accept the obvious meaning. ঐক্যতা আৰু ভিন্নতা বিপৰীত শব্দ হৈ কেনেকে ইটো সিটোৰ প্ৰতিক হ'ব পাৰে। Unity is supposed to reduce diversity, and how does it flourish in diversity.

How could anyone say, unity survives in diversity? ভিন্নতাই ঐক্যতা আনিছে নেকি? আমি কি ইচ্ছা কৰি ভিন্নতাক আৱিষ্কাৰ কৰিছো নেকি?
Could we have unity if there was no diversity?
ধৰ্ম নথকা হেতেঁন আমি একত্ৰিত নহ'লো হেতেঁন নেকি? Couldn't we have agricultural societies without religion and class systems in ancient Mesopotamia? Could we have them today? সম্প্ৰদায় বা সামূহিকতা ধৰ্মৰ অবিহনে সম্ভৱ নহ'ল হেতেঁন নেকি? খেতি-বাতি সামূহিকতাৰ অবিহনে সম্ভৱ আছিল নে? Could we have communities without imposing diversity, which would engage in a mass labour intensive activity like agriculture? Was nation building possible without religion? গাওঁ, ৰাজ্য আৰু দেশৰ সৃষ্টি হ'ল হেতেঁন নে?

বান্দৰৰ দলএটা বোলে ২০-২৫টা বান্দৰতকে বেছি হ'লে তুমূল কাজিয়া হয় আৰু ভাগ ভাগ হৈ যায়। Monkeys fight and find a different leader if the group becomes larger than 20-25 monkeys. If chimpanzees had religion, they would have perhaps moved around in much larger groups. Probably, even had territories and fought with homo sapiens. বান্দৰ জাতিৰ ধৰ্ম বা ভিন্নতা অনা নিয়ম থকা হেতেঁন, মানৱ জাতিৰ লগত সিহঁতে ঐক্য হৈ যুদ্ধ কৰিল হেতেঁন।

মানৱ জাতিয়েও হেনো ২০-২৫ জনৰ ওপৰত হ'লে একেলগে থাকিব নোৱাৰে। সেইকাৰনে, একত্ৰিত কৰিবলৈ কল্পনাৰ সহায় ল'ব লগা হ'ল। বিভিন্ন ভগৱানৰ আৱিষ্কাৰ কৰিব লগা হ'ল। Humans also couldn't live peacefully beyond a group size of 20-25 people. So, even though all spiritual studies say there is just one Supreme  power, but we had to divide that power into many Gods to bring in an imagined order of diversity to unite large sections of the population. ভগৱানক ভিন্ন কৰি বিভিন্ন নিয়মক ভগৱানৰ আদেশ বুলি নিয়মবোৰেৰে সম্প্ৰদায় গঠন কৰা হ'ল। প্ৰত্যেক সম্প্ৰদায়ে নিজৰ মাজত একতা আনিবলে বিভিন্ন বেলেগ সম্প্ৰদায়তকে ভিন্ন নিয়ম বনাবলৈ ললে।

This unity helped in the ruling of a large population by a few monarch/leaders, and also to create a huge homogeneous work force. একতা থাকিলে এটা বিৰাত জনগনক নিয়ন্ত্ৰণ বা শোষন কৰিবলৈ সহজ, আৰু সামূহিক কৰ্ম দ্বাৰা যঠেষ্ট উৎপাদন কৰিব পৰা যায়। জনসংখ্যা বৃদ্ধিৰ লগতে উৎপাদনৰ বৃদ্ধি অতি দৰকাৰ হৈ পৰিছিল। A coordinated work force was essential for a rapidly growing population since agricultural subsistence living started in place of a life of hunting and gathering.

ঐক্যতা ৰক্ষা কৰিবলৈ সৃষ্টি কৰা ভিন্নতাই বহুতো বিয়াগোম যুদ্ধৰ বাট মুকলি কৰি দিলে। Huge groups of people however posed a dangerous threat to world peace. If a group of 20 people fought with another 20 people earlier, now each fighting group had thousands of soldiers. দ্বিতীয় মহাযুদ্ধৰ কাৰক এই ঐক্যতা আৰু তাৰ কাৰক, এই ভিন্নতা। আমাৰ হিন্দু বা অসমীয়া জাতীয়তাবাদী (মোৰও) সত্তাৰ কাৰকো এই কাল্পনিক ভিন্নতা বোৰ। World wars, the strife in Syria, our nationalism, love for a particular football playing nation, or even our Hindu / Muslim consciousness is based on this unity brought in by these imagined diversities.

লৰা ছোৱালীয়ে জন্মৰ আধাৰত এটা কাল্পনিক চিনাকি পায়। জন্মৰ প্ৰাক-মুহৰ্তত যদি দেউতাকে ধৰ্ম সলায় তেনেহ'লে কেচুৱাটোৰ ধৰ্মও বদলি হৈ যায়। If an Indian couple gives birth to a kid in Nz, he gets an automatic nationalism certificate - the passport. Similarly, if a kid is adapted by Brahmin parents, he gets the lagoon. তুলি লোৱা লৰা এটাকো বামুন পিতৃ-মাতৃয়ে লগূন পিন্ধায় এটা ভিন্ন চিনাকি দিয়ে।

আমি বুজা উচিত যে বৈষম্যতা বা ভিন্নতা মানৱ জাতিয়ে সৃষ্টি কৰা বিধ বিধ ঐক্য চিনাকী। It was essential to create diverse identities. এই চিনাকীক লৈ আমি গৰ্ব কৰিব পাৰো, কিন্তু বেলেগ এটা চিনাকীক বেয়া পাব নোৱাৰো। However, we need to realize that the concept of love cannot be restricted to one identity, or within one identity.

ভিন্নতা, ঐক্যতাৰ কাৰনে সৃষ্টি কৰা হৈছিল। Diversity was not created to increase hatred. Hatred became a collateral damage. কিন্তু, ঘৃণা কৰা হ'লো বেলেগ এবিধ ঐক্যতাক, নিজৰ ঐক্যতা ৰক্ষা কৰিবলৈ। এই ঘৃণায়ে আজি সমাজ খনত শান্তি আৰু প্ৰেমভাৱ নাইকীয়া কৰিছে।

For a created / imagined identity, we spread venom on social media, as if it is a real practical identity, giving rise to enhanced hatred. জাতি বা ধৰ্মক লৈ ফেচবুক - টুইটাৰ আদিত ঘৃণা বিলায় ফুৰাটো মূৰ্খামী নহয় নে?

It's biological for two people to fight. দুজনৰ মাজৰ কাজিয়া স্বাভাৱিক। দুটা জাতি বা দুখন দেশৰ মাজৰ কাজিয়া অস্বাভাৱিক আৰু সাংঘাতিক ক্ষতিকাৰক। It is ignorance that makes two nations fight. Probably it is a fight between two leaders where millions may die in ignorant nationalism.

Let's all respect diversity for it has made us the most powerful living being in this earth. ভিন্নতাই আমাক ঐক্য কৰি পৃথিৱীৰ শ্ৰেষ্ঠ জীৱৰ ঠাই দিলে। এই ভিন্নতাক সন্মান জনায় আমি পণ কৰা উচিত যে আমি আন এজন মানুহক বেয়া পাব পাৰো, কিন্তু আন এটা জাতি, ধৰ্ম বা দেশক বেয়া পাব নোৱাৰো। I may hate one particular individual but I must never hate an identity like a religion, caste or a country.

কৃষ্ণ। Amen.